Thursday, July 23, 2020

Smarting about Tanzania’s common sense response to COVID-19


Below is how the globalist mouthpiece, Devex, reports Tanzania’s response to the coronavirus plandemic.  The report fails to address key issues which it glosses over: such as samples from goats and papaya testing positive to coronavirus, and desperately suggests that people living and enjoying their normal lives, as it was forced to concur, are somehow suffering because they refused to lock down their Churches and businesses. It insisted that local herbal treatments being used have not been shown by “research” to be effective – referring, of course, to globalist’s sanctioned research! Note that the globalists have been known to be at war even with the WHO whenever that organization attempted to show a little autonomy and go against the dictates of globalists “experts”.
In the conclusion, the authors of the article wistfully suggested that even if Magufuli’s government wasn’t going to comply 100%  with the globalists instructions to enforce a lockdown, (which decision they also conceded might have been reasonable), “it could have communicated its decision to avoid a lockdown in a more transparent way;” by which is meant government should have entered into “discussions” with the globalists and negotiate measures to take “while still keeping the economy open.”
Thank God for a bold reasonable African leader in John Magufuli.  May the LORD continue to protect Tanzania even as we know the globalists would be looking for any means to discredit this response that has clearly been of tremendous benefits to the people.
                                                    

·         Inside Development
·         COVID-19
Muddled messaging around COVID-19 complicates response in Tanzania
By Sara JervingAdva Saldinger // 21 July 2020
https://res.cloudinary.com/devex/image/fetch/c_scale,f_auto,q_auto,w_720/https:/lh6.googleusercontent.com/SOxsmQqrtCSH1CcerasYG6qUhzslDaaNdHyLsJo3T5KgovjmWJp2fIQoYkG_oa8cCpECbyeW0ZiDGotu7x5ARx2IWAOScXs4rpT6U92ucJykyH4dZoi2nL5T844t7w389y35J2ZzJohn Magufuli, president of Tanzania. Photo by: Paul Kagame / CC BY-NC-ND
NAIROBI/WASHINGTON — When John Peters, who lives in Dar es Salaam, tested positive for COVID-19 in mid-May, it was about two weeks after the Tanzanian government stopped reporting cases to the World Health Organization.
Others all around him also started getting sick. He personally knows about 25 people who tested positive.
After he received the results — about a week after he was tested — he was not asked for the names of the people he had been in contact with over the past few weeks to enable contact tracing. But Peters, whose name has been changed to avoid retribution from the government, was asked to sign a form saying he would stay home for 14 days.
Around this same time, there were reports of many hospitals in Dar es Salaam becoming overwhelmed, and three members of Parliament died in the span of 11 days of unknown causes — all raising suspicions that the government was covering up its COVID-19 caseload with its decision to not release figures.
WHILE SOME BUSINESSES DID CLOSE, AND THE GOVERNMENT SHUT SCHOOLS AND BANNED MASS GATHERINGS AT WEDDINGS AND FUNERALS, A FULL ECONOMIC LOCKDOWN WAS NEVER IMPLEMENTED.
In recent months, Tanzanian President John Magufuli has repeatedly minimized the risks of COVID-19, and he announced in June that God had removed the coronavirus from Tanzania. This has created a complicated environment for organizations focused on health communications to navigate as they work to educate communities about how to deal with the ongoing pandemic.
“This is a government in denial,” said Judd Devermont, director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If you are an organization that is focused on preventing COVID cases from spreading and the government says there are no more COVID cases or is unwilling to share any information, how do you operate in that space?”
Tanzania has not reported a new case of COVID-19 to WHO for two and a half months — the longest gap in reporting from any country in Africa. The count stands at 509 cases and 21 deaths.
COVID-19 likened to Satan and goats tested
Tanzania, in some ways, started to lay the groundwork for an effective COVID-19 response in the months leading up to the pandemic.
In September, there were unofficial reports of people suffering from Ebola-like symptoms in the country. But while the government said that these people tested negative for the Ebola virus, it refused to provide WHO with requested information to further verify this.

But the risk of Ebola spreading to Tanzania from the outbreak in neighboring Congo led the government to convene its national task force on emergencies to prepare prevention and response mechanisms, including a committee on risk communication and community engagement, according to sources.
WHEN COVID-19 HIT, THESE STRUCTURES WERE IN PLACE, READY TO RESPOND TO THE NEW THREAT. THE GOVERNMENT GALVANIZED TO DISTRIBUTE PREVENTION MESSAGING WITH ITS PARTNERS.
AT THE START, THINGS WERE HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, SOURCES TOLD DEVEX. BUT THEN THE MESSAGING FROM THE TOP OF THE GOVERNMENT BEGAN TO CHANGE.
AT THE END OF MARCH, MAGUFULI ENCOURAGED PEOPLE TO CONTINUE VISITING PLACES OF WORSHIP — A MOVE THAT BUCKED INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC HEALTH RECOMMENDATIONS — while comparing the virus to Satan and saying that it “cannot survive in the body of Jesus Christ.”
THEN IN MAY, THE PRESIDENT CAST DOUBT ON THE DATA AROUND CASES BY SUGGESTING THAT PEOPLE WHO TEST POSITIVE MIGHT NOT ACTUALLY BE INFECTED. HE SAID HE SECRETLY TESTED A PAPAYA, A GOAT, AND A QUAIL FOR COVID-19 — ALL TESTING POSITIVE — TO PROVE HIS POINT.
He also questioned the safety of imported masks, stopped the disinfection of public places, AND TOUTED AN HERBAL REMEDY AS A CURE FOR COVID-19, WHICH RESEARCH HAS NOT PROVED EFFECTIVE.
Then on June 9, Magufuli declared that “Corona in our country has been removed by the powers of God.” Celebrations followed.
He reiterated that COVID-19 was eliminated from Tanzania in a speech on Monday.
"OUR ENEMIES WILL SPEAK A LOT, BUT THE REALITY REMAINS THAT TANZANIA IS SAFE AND THAT IS WHY NONE OF US HERE IS PUTTING ON A MASK. DOES IT MEAN WE ARE NOT AFRAID OF DYING? NO, IT IS BECAUSE CORONA HAS BEEN ELIMINATED,” HE SAID.
NOW, LIFE HAS LARGELY RETURNED TO NORMAL IN TANZANIA, SOURCES TELL DEVEX. SCHOOLS HAVE REOPENED, MANY PEOPLE ARE WALKING AROUND WITHOUT MASKS, AND THE GOVERNMENT HAS CLOSED MANY OF ITS COVID-19 CENTERS.
“IF YOU WENT INTO A COMA LAST YEAR AND YOU WOKE UP RIGHT NOW IN DAR ES SALAAM, YOU WOULD THINK THAT LIFE IS NORMAL,” PETERS SAID.
While the government stopped reporting cases to WHO at the end of April, the health agency and other partners continue to provide the Tanzanian government with technical support on its response, including on case management, infection prevention and control, surveillance and laboratory strengthening, risk communication and community engagement, and logistics, according to an email from WHO.
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Confusing narratives, ineffective messaging
The president’s messaging on the pandemic, along with the Ministry of Health’s failure to approve messaging around COVID-19 for groups to use, was a “massive blow” to organizations working to educate populations on protecting themselves from the spread of the virus, said a health communications expert, who wished to remain anonymous due to concerns around publicly criticizing the government.
“The wind is very much out of the sails of the health communications sector,” the expert said. “There is a very steep hill now because there are counternarratives that are more attractive and louder. The population must be just completely confused.”
One of the problems is that the measures that are recommended — washing hands, wearing masks, and social distancing — are inconvenient and can be expensive for people living in poverty. It can be hard to convince a population of the importance of taking these inconvenient measures to combat a disease if they do not understand how many people in the country are infected and their personal risk of contracting the virus, sources said.
Civil society groups are in a tricky position because of the shrinking space for them in Tanzania under Magufuli and the need to act in accordance with government messaging, said Mwanahamisi Salimu Singano, a Tanzanian development expert. Now that the government has said the COVID-19 outbreak is over in the country, they are pressured to accept this.
Some of these groups would have likely played a significant role in an inclusive response to the pandemic that would reach vulnerable communities, such as people living with disabilities, she said.
"There is less conversation now, whether in a civil society space or an individual space, that there is COVID-19 in Tanzania — which makes now the response to be almost impossible," she said. "Most people went back to business as usual. That is where we are at in Tanzania, in my sense."
In the absence of data on case count, it is also difficult for organizations to effectively target their programs, sources told Devex.
“Without guidance, there's no light to guide you in terms of how you allocate limited resources to do the greatest good,” CSIS’ Devermont said.

Balancing risks, improving communication
SOURCES TOLD DEVEX THAT THERE DO APPEAR TO BE FEWER CASES OF COVID-19 IN TANZANIA NOW THAN IN THE INITIAL MONTHS OF THE PANDEMIC.
While it is uncertain whether this is true or why that might be, sources told Devex about some theories. Perhaps people have developed some level of immunity after months of spiking cases — although a growing body of research suggests that any immunity among people who had COVID-19 is short-lived.
There is also speculation that people with COVID-19 symptoms are no longer getting tested, due to the lack of government emphasis and the population’s feeling that the pandemic is under control, Singano said.
AS FOR THE GOVERNMENT’S APPROACH OVERALL, SOME SOURCES TOLD DEVEX THAT THE DECISION TO AVOID A FULL LOCKDOWN MIGHT HAVE MADE SENSE IN THE TANZANIAN CONTEXT.
A LOCKDOWN IS INTENDED TO SPACE OUT THE NUMBER OF INFECTIONS AT ANY GIVEN TIME SO THAT A COUNTRY’S HEALTH SYSTEM CAN COPE WITH THE CASELOAD, SAID RISHA CHANDE, DIRECTOR OF ADVOCACY AND ENGAGEMENT AT TWAWEZA, A TANZANIAN ORGANIZATION FOCUSED ON ENHANCING SOCIETY ENGAGEMENT.
“YOU MIGHT EVEN BE FLATTENING THE CURVE FOR 10 YEARS WITHOUT MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR OUR HEALTH SECTOR TO COPE IF OUR CASELOAD AND SEVERITY HAD BEEN COMPARABLE TO THE U.S. AND THE U.K.,” SHE ADDED.
GIVEN THE LIMITED UTILITY OF A LOCKDOWN, THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES MIGHT NOT BE WORTH IT. BUT EVEN SO, SOURCES SAID, THE TANZANIAN GOVERNMENT COULD HAVE COMMUNICATED ITS DECISION TO AVOID A LOCKDOWN IN A MORE TRANSPARENT WAY. THIS COULD HAVE INVOLVED DISCUSSIONS AROUND PROTECTING VULNERABLE POPULATIONS WHILE STILL KEEPING THE ECONOMY OPEN.
“A coherent line could have emerged, which would maybe not be all that different than the practice in Tanzania, which is to say: ‘Honestly, folks, we're not going to lock down because we have an economy that’s not up to it. But here are some things that you can do in your own lives that can help you to be safer,’” the communications expert, who wished not to be named, told Devex.
Update, July 21, 2020: This article has been updated to include comments made by President Magufuli on July 20.

Thursday, July 9, 2020

LOCKDOWN LUNACY 2.0: Second wave? Not even close. - J.B. Handley


This lucid article, full of facts and figures, is a must-read for everyone who really wishes to understand the course of COVID-19, past, present, and future.  Below are some extracts to whet your appetite.  Please visit the Childrens Health Defense website for the full article.

Joshua



JULY 07, 2020
LOCKDOWN LUNACY 2.0: Second wave? Not even close.
By J.B. Handley, CHD Contributing Writer

Why did politicians ever lockdown society in the first place? Can we all agree that the stated purpose was to “flatten the curve” so our hospital system could handle the inevitable COVID-19 patients who needed care? At that point, at least, back in early March, people were behaving rationally. They accepted that you can’t eradicate a virus, so let’s postpone things enough to handle it. The fact is, we have done that, and so much more. The headlines are filled with dire warnings of a “second wave” and trigger-happy Governors are rolling back regulations to try to stem the tide of new cases. But, is any of it actually true and should we all be worried? No, it’s not a second wave. The COVID-19 virus is on its final legs, and while I have filled this post with graphs to prove everything I just said, this is really the only graph you need to see, it’s the CDC’s data, over time, of deaths from COVID-19 here in the U.S., and the trend line is unmistakable:
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The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%

This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it looks. Scientists from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool school of Tropical Medicine, all recently explained the HIT of COVID-19 in this paper:
“We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in propensity to acquire or transmit COVID-19 or other infectious diseases and overlaid the findings as vertical lines in Figure 3. Most CV estimates are comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune.”
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Calculations from this study of data in Stockholm showed a HIT of 17%, and if you really love data check out this great essay by Brown Professor Dr. Andrew Bostom titled, COVID-19 ‘herd immunity’ without vaccination? Teaching modern vaccine dogma old tricks. I’m going to share his summary with you, because it’s so good:
Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly — especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus. THIS STRATEGY WAS SUCCESSFULLY IMPLEMENTED IN MALMO, SWEDEN, WHICH HAD FEW COVID-19 DEATHS BY ASSIDUOUSLY PROTECTING ITS ELDER CARE HOMES, WHILE ‘SCHOOLS REMAINED OPEN, RESIDENTS CARRIED ON DRINKING IN BARS AND CAFES, AND THE DOORS OF HAIRDRESSERS AND GYMS WERE OPEN THROUGHOUT.”
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One of the most vocal members of the scientific community discussing COVID-19’s HIT is Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt. Back on May 4, he gave this great interview to the Stanford Daily where he advocated for Sweden’s approach of letting COVID-19 spread naturally through the community until you arrive at HIT. He stated:
 “If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.”
 Guess what? That’s exactly what happened. As of today, 7 weeks after his prediction, Sweden has 5,280 deaths. In this graph, you can see that deaths in Sweden PEAKED when the HIT was halfway to its peak (roughly 7.3%) and by the time the virus hit 14% it was nearly extinguished.
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By the way, as a quick aside, and something else the press won’t touch: COVID-19 is a coronavirus, and we have ALL been exposed to MANY coronaviruses during our lives on earth (like the common cold). Guess what? Scientists are now showing evidence that up to 81% of us can mount a strong response to COVID-19 without ever having been exposed to it before:
Many of us have always been immune! If that’s not enough for you, a similar study from Sweden was just released and shows that “roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.” (We kind of knew this from the data on the Diamond Princess when only 17% of the people on board tested positive, despite an ideal environment for mass spread, implying 83% of the people were somehow protected from the new virus.)
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Fact #1: All of the “second wave” states have dramatically increased their testing. This alone causes cases to rise, and is the single biggest reason they have.
Fact #2: Hospitalizations for COVID-19 are up slightly because of how COVID-19 positive patients are tracked. They will be in the number even if they didn’t go to the hospital BECAUSE of COVID-19.
Fact #3: A REAL rise in both cases and hospitalizations perfectly matches the timing of the nationwide protests which included many densely-packed crowds together for many hours and even days. However, the good news about all of this is that there has been no impact on the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs, which is consistent with the fact that we know younger patients are less impacted by COVID-19, check out this chart:

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In Conclusion

Dr. Michael Levitt and Sweden have been right all along. The only way through COVID-19 is by achieving the modest (10-20%) Herd Immunity Threshold required to have the virus snuff itself out. The sooner politicians—and the press—start talking about HIT and stop talking about new confirmed cases, the better off we will all be. Either way, it’s likely weeks, not months, before the data of new daily deaths will be so low that the press will have to find something new to scare everyone. It’s over.
A quick note:
Haters of this article will post articles about Sweden saying their approach has been a failure. They will point to recent press about Sweden having higher rates of COVID-19 positive tests lately—Sweden has pushed back strongly—so here’s a chart for the haters, it shows positive cases in Sweden, tracked against deaths. There’s no correlation.

For my truly committed readers who made it this far:

“The death rate is a fact; anything beyond this is an inference.”

—William Farr (1807 – 1883)
William Farr, creator of Farr’s law, knew this over 100 years ago. Viruses rise and fall at roughly the same slopes. It’s predictable, and COVID-19 is no different, which is why, after looking at all these death curves, it’s not very hard to declare that the pandemic is over. Oxford’s center for Evidence Based Medicine has a wonderful explanation of Farr’s law, and it’s well worth a read. Some of my favorite quotes:
“Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope.”
“In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognise the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to ‘density’ that require special considerations.”

About the author: J.B. Handley is the best-selling author of How to End the Autism Epidemic. He graduated with honors from Stanford University, and currently serves as a Managing member of Bochi Investments, a private investment firm. He can be reached at jbhandleyblog@gmail.com